2025 World Athletics Championships: Event-by-Event Distance Preview

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Greetings from Tokyo! We’re only one day away from the 2025 World Athletics Championships starting Saturday, September 13th (the evening of Friday the 12th EDT).

In case you missed it, you can read our comprehensive sprint preview here as we move onto the events 800m on up. During the meet, we’ll bring you minute-by-minute coverage, daily live shows, and newsletters all along the way. You can find a full schedule with entries and live results here.

How to keep up with all of CITIUS MAG’s extensive coverage of the World Championships – powered by ASICS:

🎥 CHAMPS CHATS - We will be streaming our post-race show live on YouTube at the conclusion of every evening session in Tokyo (AM in America) featuring Chris Chavez, Eric Jenkins, Anderson Emerole, Paul Hof-Mahoney and more from the CITIUS MAG team.

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🎦 Post-race interviews on the CITIUS MAG YouTube channel.

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📆 Bookmark our full schedule of events here.

🏃 If you’re in Tokyo, join us for group runs with Asics on Sep. 12th and Sep. 19th. Details here.

Below, you can find an event-by-event preview of every distance event coming up in Tokyo over the next two weeks.

Women’s 800m

Schedule + How To Watch

Heats: Thursday, September 18th at 6:55 am ET on Peacock and USA

Semifinals: Friday, September 19th at 7:45 am ET on Peacock and USA

Final: Sunday, September 21st at 6:35 am ET on Peacock and CNBC

Top contenders: Any doubts about Olympic champion Keely Hodgkinson after injury kept her out of competition for over a year after the Olympics have been firmly silenced. Hodgkinson posted the two fastest times of the year in her only two outings in Silesia and Lausanne, both in August. Currently, her ability to run over a whole second faster than any of her competitors means she should be in a position to win almost any type of race, albeit, given the long injury layoff, she may take a conservative approach and try to control the race from the front, as she did in the Olympic final.

The season’s breakout star is Audrey Werro of Switzerland, who has run five of the twenty fastest times in the world this year, including three in a nine day span in late August which culminated in an impressive victory in the Diamond League Final in Zurich. That performance made her the second fastest athlete this year, and that level of consistency puts her in a strong position to reach the podium. 

Meanwhile, Georgia Hunter Bell was, until mid-August, a potential favorite for gold, when Werro and Hodgkinson produced times ahead of hers on the descending order list. However, her 1500m strength gives her a lethal ‘kick’ in the home straight of an 800m, and last year’s Olympic bronze medalist over 1500m has chosen to focus solely on the 800m in Tokyo, so she remains a strong contender for the podium.

Olympic silver medalist Tsige Duguma has not raced since her victory at the Pre Classic on July 5th. She ran her season best of 1:56.64 back on May 3rd in China, which puts her fifth on times going into Tokyo. If healthy, she’s the kind of athlete we expect to be on the podium, and potentially even threaten for the win, but she also has some unexpected performances, like her bizarre last-place finish at the World Indoor Championships in March.

2025 World Indoor champion Prudence Sekgodiso of South Africa showed some excellent form throughout indoors and the earlier part of the outdoor season, but her last couple of outings have been less impressive: a pair of sixth place finishes in Lausanne and Zurich. Is she running out of steam from racing non-stop since late January?

Kenyan Lillian Odira comes into Tokyo as the third fastest woman in the world in 2025, but was essentially paced to that time by Keely Hodgkinson in Silesia—her only outdoor race outside Kenya this year. She failed to make the final at World Indoors in March or the Olympic final last year, so her ability to translate fast times to strong finishes at global championships is unproven.

Dark Horses: It seems bizarre to call the defending World Champion a dark horse, but Mary Moraa has oscillated between the sublime and the disastrous in her 800m outings this season. However, her reputation as an agent of chaos means there is every possibility that the Moraa of 2023 and 2024 turns up and gets on the podium.

Aussie Jess Hull will be doubling back from the 1500m. She’ll have more racing in her legs than most women in the field, but there’s sometimes something freeing about taking a free hit at a secondary event, and with plenty of tactical 800m racing practice from Grand Slam Track, Hull could be a surprise package in the 800m and sneak a medal.

Last year’s fourth place finisher at the Olympics, Shafiqua Maloney has had an up and down season but appears to be rounding into form at the right time, running a 1:57.29 personal best for fourth in the Diamond League final.

USA’s Roisin Willis is only ranked fifteenth on time here, but she will take some confidence from a win at the World U20 championships in 2022—ahead of one Audrey Werro—and has demonstrated great tactical acumen in winning multiple NCAA titles plus a U.S. championship. As was the case for her Stanford teammate Juliette Whittaker in Paris, after an NCAA season without as many opportunities to race a truly world class field, it may be worth taking her seed time with a grain of salt. 

One good stat: Botswana’s Oratile Nowe comes in as the sixth fastest qualifier (1:56.76), and if she manages to land on the podium, she would be the first woman from her country to medal at a global championship since 2013 (Amantle Montsho took silver in the 400m).

Men’s 800m

Schedule + How To Watch

Heats: Tuesday, September 16th at 6:35 am ET on Peacock and USA

Semifinals: Thursday, September 18th at 8:45 am ET on Peacock and USA

Final: Saturday, September 20th at 9:22 am ET on Peacock and CNBC

Top contenders: The men’s 800 meters continues to explode in 2025 and while there have not been as many 1:41 performances as in the lead-up to the Paris Olympics, the event continues to feel like it’s at its best ever. David Rudisha’s 1:40.91 world record from the 2012 Olympics has been on watch all season and that will continue to be the case.

Olympic champion Emmanuel Wanyonyi has given no reason to strip him of the favorite status—he’s posted the three fastest times in the world for the year, won the Diamond League title and impressed with a variety of race tactics in several of those victories. The 1:41.44 in Monaco was simply a warning shot for what could be in store in Tokyo.

But it’s easy to forget that he’s not the reigning World champion. That title belongs to Canadian Marco Arop, who beat him in Budapest by 0.29 seconds. Arop earned the silver medal in Paris and certainly belongs among the favorites in Tokyo but has not been as  sharp as last year. Yes, Arop beat Wanyonyi in Kingston at the inaugural Grand Slam meet, but that was months ago. He did run 1:42.22 to finish just 0.22 back of Wanonyi in London and was .30 back in the Diamond League final. Arop has not been shy about testing (and sometimes failing) with different tactics to see what race plan would best suit him at the championships. No man has won back-to-back World Championship 800m gold medals since Wilson Kipketer’s insane threepeat from 1995-1999.

Dark horses: It’s hard to throw a former World champion into the “dark horse” label, but it’s fair to do so when this is Donavan Brazier’s first time back at this stage since 2022… and he barely ran in the years in between. The questions around Brazier’s comeback centered on how he would handle the rounds of a championship but he cast those doubts aside by winning the U.S. Championships in a personal best of 1:42.16. Each time out, Brazier has looked better with more training under his belt. He’s had a month since the U.S. Championships and should be more prepared for the best of the best since he got his first glance at them at the London Diamond League and finished sixth in a then-season’s best of 1:43.08.

Algerian Djamel Sedjati can’t be counted out for a medal given that he made the podium at the 2022 World Championships and was the bronze medalist in Paris. He’s run 1:42 on three occasions this season and has not finished worse than fourth in a race, which came at the Diamond League final.

American record holder Bryce Hoppel came just .17 seconds shy of a medal in Paris and will look for a bit of redemption. He managed to make the team with a third place finish at the U.S. Championships and then didn’t have great showings at the Lausanne (9th, 1:48.18) or Zurich (7th, 1:43.78) Diamond League meets. On the opposite side, momentum-wise, Max Burgin of Team GB is looking to channel his runner-up finish in the Diamond League final, where he ran 1:42.42. Burgin was eighth in the Olympic final.

You’ll probably see lots of NBC’s spotlight in this event around 16-year-old Cooper Lutkenhaus who will make history as the youngest-ever American to compete at the World Championships. He is the sixth-fastest man in the world this year so reaching the final wouldn’t be out of the question.

One good stat: No one has run faster at a World Championships than Brazier’s 1:42.34 to win gold at the 2019 World Championships in Doha. For 4 years, 10 months, and 9 days, that was the American record, too. But there are five guys in the field who have run faster than that in 2025—including Brazier. 

Women’s 1500m

Schedule + How To Watch

Heats: Saturday, September 13th at 6:50 am ET on Peacock and CNBC

Semifinals: Sunday, September 14th at 8:05 am ET on Peacock and CNBC

Final: Tuesday, September 16th at 9:05 am ET on Peacock and USA

The favorite: There’s only one top contender here and her name is Faith Kipyegon. The Olympic champion, World champion, and world record holder is already considered the greatest 1500m runner ever. She can make more history in Tokyo by matching Hicham El Guerrouj as the only athlete to claim four World Championship gold medals (and El Guerrouj never won three Olympic gold medals like Kipyegon).

Kipyegon’s season has been essentially flawless. She chased the 1000m world record in April but came up shy in 2:29.21, still the third-fastest time in history. She ran 4:06.91 for the mile in Nike’s Breaking4 event, which is faster than her world record but does not count due to the male pacemakers used in the exhibition. A week later, she lowered her 1500m world record to 3:48.68 at the Prefontaine Classic. Then she took a crack at the 3000m world record of 8:06.11 set by Wang Junxia (which is a highly suspect record) and fell short with a  8:07.04.

No one has beaten Kipyegon in a 1500m since June 2021 and it’s hard to see it happening in Tokyo.

Other contenders: With Gudaf Tsegay focusing on the 10,000m/5000m double, the next-fastest woman in the field is her Ethiopian teammate, 2023 World Championship silver medalist Diribe Welteji, whose 3:51.44 personal best (No. 8 all-time) was overshadowed by Kipyegon’s world record in Eugene. However, questions could arise about her fitness since she has not raced since then. Hannah Borenstein, a CITIUS MAG contributor with connections in Ethiopia, mentioned that the Ethiopian Athletics Federation may also have requested that some of the top stars prioritize training for Tokyo over the late Diamond League races in Europe.

Welteji has not competed since running a personal best of 3:51.44 for second place in the 1500m at the Prefontaine Classic behind Faith Kipyegon’s 3:48.68 world record. Weleteji is No. 8 on the all-time 1500m list. Welteji was 4th at the Paris Olympics last year and has a silver medal in the 1500m from the 2023 World Championships.

UPDATE:

The Athletics Integrity Unit has appealed to the Court of Arbitration for Sport after Ethiopia’s Anti-Doping Authority cleared Diribe Welteji of a violation related to refusing or failing to submit to sample collection.

A timeline of the events:

• Aug 27: Ethiopian panel cleared Welteji of refusal or failure to submit to an anti-doping sample collection.

• Sept 1: AIU received the case file.

• Sept 8: AIU filed an appeal with CAS.

• Sept 13: Women’s 1500m heats at World Championships in Tokyo.

A decision is expected from CAS before Saturday’s races.

Olympic silver medalist Jess Hull has found good fortune when she’s stuck to her race plan of trying to hang on with Kipyegon for as long as possible. It resulted in her 3:50.83 personal best at the 2024 Paris Diamond League meet and then the Olympic silver medal a few months later. Even Hull has her limits, however, which she learned the hard way when she came close to earning her first Diamond League final win in Zurich but tied up badly with 100m to go, ending up in second place in 3:57.02. It was a good learning experience ahead of the championships and she said after she took the experience as a sign to commence her taper.

Dark horses: Nelly Chepchirchir may deserve “contender” status after pipping Hull at the finish line of the Diamond League final, but she is here mostly because she’s buried on the start lists with her 3:56.99 personal best. However, at just 22 years old, Chepchirchir has won five of her six 1500m races this year. 

Nikki Hiltz is looking to become the fifth American to medal in history to medal in this event, and they’ve never been in a better position to do so. Hiltz has run under 3:57 on three occasions, defended their U.S. title, and claimed their first Diamond League win in Brussels. The question will be whether Hiltz’s signature kick can either reel in the runners that went out with Kipyegon or outpace the competition if the race gets packed up. If the race behind Kipyegon gets really slow, that could open the door for Hiltz’s teammates Sinclaire Johnson or Emily MacKay to outperform their seeds.

One good stat: As Faith Kipyegon has improved, she’s also made the World Championship or Olympic final quicker each time out in her victories dating back to 2016, with the exception of the 2023 World Championships (and a post-partum silver medal in 2019):

• 2016 Rio Olympics – 4:08.92

• 2017 World Championships – 4:02.59

• 2021 Tokyo Olympics – 3:53.11

• 2022 World Championships – 3:52.96

• 2023 World Championships – 3:54.87

• 2024 Paris Olympics – 3:51.29

Men’s 1500m

Schedule + How To Watch

Heats: Saturday, September 13th at 8:35 pm ET on Peacock

Semifinals: Monday, September 15th at 8:30 am ET on Peacock and USA

Final: Wednesday, September 17th at 9:20 am ET on Peacock and USA

We could honestly do a whole newsletter on just this event. Just as we did on the podcast, we think the way to frame the 1500m is to share the cases for and against the top stars:

Cole Hocker (USA)

The Case For: He’s the reigning Olympic champion and it would be silly to discount him a year after he went 3:27.65 to win in one of the greatest races of the century. He went into the Paris Olympics with a 3:30.59 personal best and you could say that he’s ahead of that since he’s run 3:30.37 this year. When you hear Hocker speak, he has full confidence in himself and his coach’s plan, saying they know how to peak for the championships.

The Case Against: You’ll hear the stat thrown around that he has not won a 1500m race since Paris. He was beaten by two guys at the U.S. Championships and just barely made the team. That being said, he quickly brushed it off by going out and winning the 5000m two days later.

Josh Kerr (Great Britain)

The Case For: No one has a better global championship record in the 1500m since the Tokyo Olympics than Kerr, with medals in three of the last four. He enters as the reigning World champion, which allowed him to take all of the spring and summer to solely focus on peaking for this event.

He got his championship-style tests on the Grand Slam circuit, with 1500m wins in Miami and Philadelphia before the league’s season was discontinued. Next, he came away with a 3:29.37 runner-up finish at the London Diamond League in July. (Remember: He didn’t even race a 1500m before the Paris Olympics). Kerr jogged a 13:44 to win the British 5000m national title and he’s been hard at work and training in Albuquerque, New Mexico, for this title defense.

The Case Against: No man has won back-to-back World titles since Asbel Kiprop in 2011, 2013, and 2015 (notably, Kiprop was later suspended for testing positive for EPO.) Heavy is the head that wears the crown. Much like Hocker, you can’t doubt that Kerr will show up in form to a championship until he doesn’t.

Niels Laros (Netherlands)

The Case For: No one is sharper in the 1500m right now than the 20-year-old Dutchman. He had a slightly delayed start to his season after some illness following the indoor season but he looks like he’s leveled up since his sixth place finish at the Paris Olympics. (It will also help that two of the guys that beat him in Paris—Yared Nuguse and Hobbs Kessler—failed to qualify for Tokyo.) The first sign of improvement came with a 3:45.94 victory against a deep Bowerman Mile field, where he hawked down Nuguse in the closing meters. He decimated another strong field at the Brussels DL and then again at the Zurich final while closing out both races with 12.5-second speed for his final 100 meters. His tactical savvy was impressive in both races, not just for a 20 year old, but for any 1500m runner, regardless of experience.

The Case Against: We don’t know if he can pull off that same kick in a 3:28 or 3:27 race. When asked about this, he said he was confident in his ability to handle that pace. A two or three-second PB in the final is not unheard of. Remember that Hocker guy?

Phanuel Koech (Kenya)

The Case For: About two months ago, the 18-year-old looked like he was the clear favorite after a 3:27.72 showing for second at the Paris Diamond League, a 3:29.05 win in Ostrava, and a win over Kerr at the London DL in 3:28.82.

The Case Against: In slightly slower races, he’s more vulnerable — he went 3:31.41 for second in Brussels and 3:30.02 for third in Zurich. Another question will be how he handles rounds. His only championship experience is last year’s U20 World Championships, where he finished fifth in the final of the 800m.

A few more quick ones…

Timothy Cheruiyot (Kenya)

The Case For: He’s a past champion and has strung together some solid performances: a 3:29.75 season’s best and a fourth-place finish in the Diamond League final. He’s made six global championship finals in his career.

The Case Against: He has not even been the best Kenyan this year.

Azeddine Habz (France)

The Case For: He’s the fastest 1500m runner of the year with a 3:27.49 win at the Paris Diamond League in front of his home crowd.

The Case Against: Habz has not historically been that great in championship settings, with his best result being a 11th place finish in 2023 (missing the final entirely in 2024). He also got beaten in his next two Diamond Leagues after Paris.

Stefan Nillessen (Netherlands)

The Case For: He’s the fifth-fastest man entered by season’s best with a 3:29.23 from a fifth place finish at the Paris Diamond League.

The Case Against: He’s underperformed in big races, including a 13th-place finish in the Bowerman Mile in 3:49.53, and did not even contest the Diamond League final.

Isaac Nader (Portugal)

The Case For: His Oslo mile win in 3:48.25 over the likes of Stefan Nillessen, Timothy Cheruiyot, and Cameron Myers was impressive. He’s also run 3:29.37 this year behind Koech in Ostrava.

The Case Against: He hasn’t won anything else this year except the 1500m at the European Team Championships, which was a 3:39 race. 

Jakob Ingebrigtsen (Norway)

The Case For: Ingebrigtsen is one of the best 1500m runners in history, but we honestly do not know what we’re in for until the first rounds of the 1500m commence on Saturday. Ingebrigtsen is returning to the site of his Olympic gold medal and this past indoor season, he looked like he was on a mission to get another while potentially setting some world records along the way. Then, an Achilles flare-up meant he had to sit idly and watch as new competition like Koech, Laros, and Habz stepped up their game.

In the Olympic final in Paris, he became the de facto pacer and failed to medal. So if there’s a chance his return from injury causes him to play it a bit more patiently and not be the aggressor at the front of the race, it could flip his fortune after three consecutive global championships of shortcomings. But, Ingebrigtsen could also throw all that caution to the wind and risk it all. By his own admission: “Time to roll the dice.. 🎲🇯🇵”

The Case Against: He’s opening his season at the World Championships! He’s not the kind of athlete who would do so if he wasn’t ready, so you have to commend his determination to show up in the first place. But how race-sharp can you be without any races?

One good stat: The last time the man with the fastest time on the year was also that year’s global champion? 2019. The man? None other than Timothy ​​Cheruiyot, who won Worlds in Doha by a commanding two-second margin and clocked a 3:28.77 in Lausanne. 

Women’s 3000m Steeplechase

Schedule + How To Watch

Prelims: Sunday, September 14th at 8:15 pm ET on Peacock

Final: Wednesday, September 17th at 8:57 am ET on Peacock and USA

Top contenders: These days, this event looks like a three-way battle between Winfred Yavi, Faith Cherotich, and Peruth Chemutai. They’re the three fastest women of the year and they’re also the podium from last summer’s Olympics in Paris.

If you buy that NCAA athletes—their seed times not typically buoyed by rabbited DL races—are underranked in these settings, you’ll also want to pay attention to Kenyan Doris Lemngole, the Alabama superstar who became the first collegian to break nine minutes in the event at the NCAA Championship. She also won her only Diamond League outing, albeit in a modest 9:16.36 in Lausanne, due to the apocalyptic downpour during her race.

Dark horses: Frenchwoman Alice Finot  had the home crowd rocking last summer en route to her fourth place finish in this event with a 8:58.67 national record. She only has a season’s best of 9:09.84 (when she was a distant 10th at the Prefontaine Classic) but could maybe find her form again on the championship stage.

Lexy Halladay-Lowry, Angelina Napoleon, and Kaylee Mitchell are at their first global championship for Team USA. Last year, the top American in the Paris Olympic final was Courtney Wayment, who finished in 12th place, so any improvement on that would be a good showing for the young squad.

One good stat: Yavi, Chemutai, and Cherotich aren’t just the three fastest women in 2025, they’re the second, third, and fourth fastest women ever in this event, respectively. 

Men’s 3000m Steeplechase

Schedule + How To Watch

Prelims: Saturday, September 13th at 5:05 am ET on Peacock and CNBC

Final: Monday, September 15th at 8:55 am ET on Peacock and USA

Top contenders: Soufiane El Bakkali has been at the top of this event since 2021 and now he’s looking for his fifth consecutive global championship gold. With one more, he’ll beat Ezekiel Kemboi’s record four golds in the event, but Kemboi’s three silver medals bring his total haul to seven. El Bakkali heads to Tokyo with the fastest time of the year, a 8:00.70 in Rabat.

Frederik Ruppert could put Germany on the podium for the first time since the Berlin Wall came down. (Hagen Melzer won silver in this event, representing East Germany at the 1987 World Championships.) He’s coming off becoming the first European to win the Diamond League trophy in Zurich and even gave the eight-minute barrier a scare, chasing El Bakkali in Rabat. 

We’ll have to see how loud the stadium gets if Ryuji Miura is in contention for a medal, since he’s the third-fastest man in the field with his 8:03:43, where he actually took it to El Bakkali in Monaco. Japan has yet to earn a medal in this event at the World Championships.

Kenyan fans may very well be just as excited about 17-year-old Edmund Serem as American fans are with Cooper Lutkenhaus, especially since Serem’s medal chances are probably better. Since this event was added to the World Championships in 1983, Kenya has won 32 medals, including 13 golds. More recently, however, they’ve only come away with bronze at each of the last three global championships. Serem (not to be confused with his older brother Amos Serem, who was 14th in last year’s Olympic final and won the Diamond League title) could be their next great talent. He’s run 8:04.00 for No. 4 on the year this year. 

Dark horses: Lamecha Girma took a hard and scary fall in the Paris Olympic final, which forced him to take an extended break from running but he managed to return to action with an 8:07.01 win at the Paris Diamond League, his sole race of the year to date. He’s the world record holder, though, thanks to his 7:52.11 from 2023, and so if he can find any semblance of that form (if he’s healthy and simply among the athletes that the Ethiopian Athletics Federation decided to keep home to train), he could surprise. Yes, we put the world record holder as a dark horse.

We’re also putting last year’s Olympic silver medalist Kenneth Rooks in this category because he hasn’t put much on paper this year that screams he’s an Olympic silver medalist. When we had him on the podcast in August, he explained that after the Paris Olympics, he started thinking of ways to improve his strength and speed by racing more 5000m and 1500m races. The results have not been flashy but he still managed to win his third consecutive U.S. title. He’s buried among the entries since his season’s best is just 8:14.25 from his first steeplechase of the year back in May. We’ll see if he can reach the final and turn on that switch again to try and stun the field.

One good stat: Despite his widely talked about medal chances, Frederik Rupertt didn’t manage to win the German championship. That honor went instead to Karl Bebendorf (8:08.21 season’s best.), who prevailed in an extremely tactical affair 8:32.90 to 8:33.79. If anyone else looks poised to “pull a Rooks,” it may be Bebendorf. 

Women’s 5000m

Schedule + How To Watch

Prelims: Thursday, September 18th at 6:05 am ET on Peacock and USA

Final: Saturday, September 20th at 8:29 am ET on Peacock and CNBC

Top contenders: The beauty of this race distance is that it brings together the strength and speed of two of the best runners in history: 1500m Olympic champion Faith Kipyegon and 5000m and 10,000m Olympic champion Beatrice Chebet. Both Kenyan women have put together spectacular seasons with dominant performances and world records to boast but we haven’t seen them head-to-head since the 5000m final at the Paris Olympics.

There’s an easy case to make for Chebet as the favorite given how fast she’s closed many of these races: 26.6 for the final 200m of her 14:27.12 in China and 28.8 for the final 200m of her 13:58.06 5000m world record on July 5th.

Chebet has a silver medal from the 2022 World Championships and a bronze medal from the 2023 World Championships, but a World Championship gold in the 5000m on the track has so far evaded her.

Kipyegon has not raced a 5000m this season and has her spot in Tokyo as the reigning World champion. She did not have to race any event at the Kenyan trials and has instead focused on showcasing her all-time fitness by chasing records. The closest reference to what she may be capable of in a 5000m could be her 8:07.04 for 3000m, which equates to a 13:58.91 on the scoring tables, putting her right in line with Chebet’s world record.

Then there’s Gudaf Tsegay, who entered three events at the Paris Olympics and left empty-handed despite having some of the fastest times leading into the Games. Tsegay has been impressive in 2025 despite employing some truly strange race plans. Opening up in 58 or 59 seconds for some of her races has caused her to fade but still land with season’s bests of 3:50.62 for 1500m and 4:11.88 for the mile. In the 5000m, she attempted to hang onto Chebet at the Prefontaine Classic until the wheels fell off, yet she was still able to run 14:04.41. 

A third Kenyan, Agnes Ngetich, was viewed as a bit more of a roads specialist in 2024, but she’s proven herself on the track in this event with wins at GST and an impressive second place in Eugene with a 14:01.29.

Deciding the three medals among Chebet, Kipyegon, Tsegay, and Ngetich is going to be quite the battle, and there are also other contenders. A Chebet-Kipyegon-Ngetich sweep for Kenya would match the feat pulled off by Edna Kiplagat, Priscah Jeptoo, and Sharon Cherop at the 2011 World Championships in Daegu.

Dark horses: If you’re assessing the chances of other continents to crack the podium, the odds may be slim because Ethiopia will also have the likes of World Indoor champion Freweyni Hailu and Birke Haylom on the team. But if things get tactical, you can look to Olympic 10,000m silver medalist Nadia Battocletti of and American Josette Andrews, who ran 14:23.15 and 14:25.37, respectively, at the Rome Diamond League.

One good stat: This one’s fairly obvious, and really more of one crazy stat than a good one… but one of the four fastest women ever over 5000m (Chebet, Tsegay, Ngetich, and Kipyegon) will miss out on the podium.

Men’s 5000m

Schedule + How To Watch

Prelims: Friday, September 19th at 7:05 am ET on Peacock and USA

Final: Sunday, September 21st at 6:50 am ET on Peacock and CNBC

Top contenders: We’ll have more clarity on reigning World and Olympic champion Jakob Ingebrigtsen’s status for this event, since we’ll have seen how he looked in the 1500m first. He has not run a 5000m since the Paris Olympics, but he’s won the last three gold medals on offer in this event. Whether it’s a European Championship, World Championships or Olympics, Ingebrigtsen has proven to have the perfect blend of the speed and strength to dominate this event at those stages.

The clock hasn’t interested Ingebrigtsen as much in recent years, but the same can’t be said of the rest of the world. Tokyo will have four men entered who have run 12:45 or faster this year. Andreas Almgren of Sweden, someone who has trained with Ingebrigtsen in the past, leads the world with his 12:44.27 European record from the Stockholm Diamond League and placed third in the blanket finish at the Diamond League final in Zurich behind Frenchman Jimmy Gressier and American Grant Fisher over 3000m. All three of these guys will have a 10,000m on their legs to even the playing field for Ingebrigtsen after three hard 1500ms.

Fisher’s Olympic bronze medal at the Paris Olympics was a blessing and a curse. Those medals were well deserved for one of America’s best ever talents but they also raised the expectations for how we’ll define success in Tokyo. A medal here of any sort will be extremely hard to pull off.  Back in February, Fisher looked like he could be the gold medal favorite with his 12:44.09 indoor 5000m world record and 7:22.91 indoor 3000m world record, but since then, he hasn’t been quite as dominant in unpaced races, including two runner-up finishes at USAs. 

Fisher’s compatriot Nico Young certainly has looked like he’s improved since 2024 and he’s contesting this event for the first time at the World Championships. He ran 12:45.27 to break the U.S. outdoor record at the Oslo DL and beat a strong field. That performance alone was enough to garner more eyes from the top competitors in the world.

Hagos Gebriwhet and Biniam Mehary maybe shouldn’t let their federation dictate their race plan since it’s kept Ethiopians the podium at the last three global championships. They own season’s bests of 12:46.82 and 12:45.93, respectively.

Dark horses: Let’s put the Olympic 1500m champion here. For some reason the field at USAs let Cole Hocker control the race from the front and no one was able to match his kick in the final stretch. He was adamant about attempting the double at the World Championships and was overlooked a bit leading into the race given Fisher, Young and Graham Blanks’s success leading into USAs. Yet, he got it done. Hocker said on The CITIUS MAG Podcast that he was more enticed to go for the 5000m since all the past 1500m greats have proven to be able to double and he believes he could be a threat in a 13:10ish race.

Women’s 10,000m

Schedule + How To Watch

Final: Saturday, September 13th at 8:30 am ET on Peacock and CNBC

Top contenders: It would be a shock to see Beatrice Chebet lose this one. In 2023, a Chebet-less 10,000m ended with an Ethiopian sweep led by Gudaf Tsegay, but Chebet is now the Olympic champion and world record holder who appears to have Tsegay’s number every time they race in the distance events. Tsegay can still get the better of her rival over 1500m, beating Chebet in the 1500m in Silesia, but Chebet still set an 11-second PB in that race and has the ability to close 5000ms and 10,000ms with 28-second 200m splits.

The battle for the non-gold medals will likely come down to Tsegay, her fellow Ethiopians including 2023 bronze medalist Ejgayehu Taye, Kenyans Agnes Ngetich and Janeth Chepngetich, and Paris silver medalist Nadia Battocletti.

Dark horses: If the race slows to a crawl in the warm Tokyo weather, all sorts of crazy things could happen. The last American medalist in this event, Emily Infeld in 2015, is back with a U.S. title under her belt, and Elise Cranny with her 3:57.87 PB could contend in a kicker’s race. Conversely, Ugandan Sarah Chelangat could factor in if the pace is honest. Outside of the U.S. and Kenya, the only other nation with two runners who’ve broken 31 minutes this year is Australia, thanks to Isobel Batt-Doyle and Lauren Ryan.

One good stat: With a victory, Chebet would become the first woman to win gold at the World Championships, World Road Running Championships, Olympic Games and World Cross Country Championships. Granted, the World Road Running Championships have only ever happened once but it makes for a cool stat.

Men’s 10,000m

Schedule + How To Watch

Final: Sunday, September 14th at 8:30 am ET on Peacock and CNBC

Top contenders: The absence of Ugandan Joshua Cheptegei, who won the last three World titles along with Olympic gold in Paris, opens the door for a new champion to emerge. At least two Ethiopians will be vying for the crown, possibly against each other: Berihu Aregawi, the Olympic silver medalist, and Selemon Barega, the 2021 Olympic champion. Throw in Yomif Kejelcha and his 26:31.01 PB and the odds of an Ethiopian victory are looking promising.

But Kenyans Edwin Kurgat and Ishmael Kipkurui, both NCAA champs in their college days, will want to break up the Ethiopian party, and if college creds are any predictor of international success, the American trio of Grant Fisher, Nico Young, and Graham Blanks warrant a mention as well. Fisher, of course, is the reigning Olympic bronze medalist, but Young bested him in the 10,000m at USAs so by transitive property Team USA has at least two medal contenders.

Dark horses: Ugandan Oscar Chelimo has a World bronze medal from 2022 but has yet to contest the 10,000m at a global championship. With Cheptegei and Jacob Kiplimo focused elsewhere, he’ll be the country’s best hope at a medal.

Canadian Moh Ahmed (also a former teammate of Grant Fisher) showed last summer his best days are not yet behind him, finishing fourth in the 10,000m final in Paris. With two 5000m medals on his shelf, he’s got a record of performing in championship settings. With recent results in mind, keep an eye on Benson Kiplangat (third in the Kenyan Trials in 26:50.00) and South African Adriaan Wildschutt, who ran 26:51.67 at the TEN this past spring.

One good stat: 20 men in history have run under 26:40 in the 10,000m. Seven of them are entered in this race.

Women’s Marathon

Schedule + How To Watch

Final: Saturday, September 13th at 7:00pm on Peacock and CNBC

Top contenders: Ethiopian Tigist Assefa missed out on the gold medal at last summer’s Paris Olympics after making contact with Sifan Hassan with about 300 meters remaining in the race. Now she’s decided to opt against a lucrative appearance fee to try and take back her marathon world record in Berlin to pursue a World championship gold medal. She’s the favorite if you go off her personal best and the fact that she’s coming off a 2:15:50 victory in London earlier this year.

The Ethiopian Athletics Federation isn’t holding back on its attempt to win their third consecutive gold medal in this event. Sutume Kebede has been called upon to race since she’s fared well in Tokyo having won the 2024 Tokyo Marathon in 2:15:55 and defending her title this year. Berlin Marathon champion Tigist Ketema boasts a 2:16 personal best and is also in the field.

Similarly, Kenyan Peres Jepchirchir claims the 2021 Tokyo Olympic victory but her race was actually run in Sapporo. Nonetheless, she’s trying to recapture some of that magic and redeem herself from a 14th-place finish at the Paris Olympics and withdrawing from April’s London Marathon.

Dark horses: Japan loves the marathon. In many cases, Japanese distance runners love to find themselves at the front of the race. The crowds that turn out for this one on Sunday morning will get loud if that’s the case for Sayaka Sato, Yuka Ando,and Kana Kobayashi. In her five years running the marathon, Sato has taken well to the event and ran an impressive 2:20:59 to finish second at the Nagoya Marathon in May.  

Jess McClain is looking to make the most of her opportunity on Team USA after finishing fourth at the 2024 U.S. Olympic Marathon Trials and 2024 U.S. Olympic Trials 10,000m final. Being based in Phoenix should bode well for her ability to handle the scorching conditions, but also she’s fared well in marathons without pacers with an 8th place and 7th place showing in New York and Boston, respectively. 

Erika Kemp is also making her Team USA debut after running a big personal best of 2:22:56 with her runner-up finish at the Houston Marathon in January. Susanna Sullivan rounds out the red, white, and blue and is competing in her second World Championships at 35 years old. She was 58th in 2:44:24 at the World Championships in Budapest in very hot conditions.

One good stat: After Sharon Lokedi’s 2:17:22 course record in Boston this past spring, the World Championship record of 2:18:22, set in 2022 by Gotytom Gebreslase, is now slower than every one of the WMM course records save for NYC.

Men’s Marathon

Schedule + How To Watch

Final: Sunday, September 14th at 7:00 pm on Peacock and CNBC

Top contenders: It’s almost like March’s Tokyo Marathon was a recon trip for some of the top guys entered in this race. Tadese Takele and Deresa Geleta aren’t really household names in the marathoning world, but the Ethiopians went 1-2 in 2:03:23 and 2:03:51 in March’s race. They’re the top two fastest guys entered. Vincent Ngetich, who was third, will lead Kenya’s hopes for a medal in Tokyo.

Ugandan Victor Kiplangat returns to defend his 2023 victory and looks to become just the fourth man in history to win back-to-back World titles. He’s not the fastest man in the bunch with a 2:05:09 personal best, but he fares best in a championship setting.

Brit Emile Cairess was almost knocked into the dark horse category but it’s hard for him to fly under the radar with a third place finish at the 2024 London Marathon and then taking fourth at the Paris Olympics and missing a medal by 29 seconds. None of the men who finished ahead of him in Paris will be competing in Tokyo. Cairess finished just two seconds ahead of Geleta at the Games. No British man has ever medaled in the marathon at the World Championships.

Dark horses: At the 1991 World Championships in Tokyo, Hiromi Taniguchi won marathon gold in very hot and humid conditions. Ryota Kondo is Japan’s best hope to replicate the fest in 2025. He’s coming off a runner-up finish at the Osaka Marathon in 2:05:39. His compatriot Kyohei Hosoya was just 26 seconds behind him there and will join him on the team.

No one has been more open and transparent about their preparation for this race than Clayton Young. From the start, he said that the reason he wanted to go for this over a fall World Major was because he believed he could get a medal. He was ninth at the Paris Olympics and only two guys (Cairess and Geleta) who beat him there will be in Tokyo. The word out of Utah has been that Young has been ahead of his training from past blocks in preparation for this one. If you check Strava, he’s been in the sauna frequently and unafraid to rock a full, silly-looking sauna suit on shakeout runs in Japan. It’s been 32 years since an American medaled in this event at the World Championships and Young wants to end that drought. Also, it will make for a sick ending to a well-made YouTube docuseries.

CJ Albertson and Reed Fischer are also two fan favorites on  Team USA. Albertson’s heat lamps and makeshift humidity dungeon at this house must have been working overtime in preparation for this. 

One good stat: The forecast for Sunday’s men’s marathon in Tokyo is currently showing a high of 92 degrees Fahrenheit, rising from a nightly low of 77 degrees. With a 8 a.m. local start time, this race is shaping up to be one of the most unpleasant these runners have ever faced.

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